By Luiz Carlos Salomão
Soybean prices paused in Chicago on Wednesday, November 11, but no main futures contract fell below the US$12 per bushel mark. After a session of strong gains, the contracts eased slightly, leaving producers with high prices.
Around 7:04 a.m. Brasília time, the January 2027 contract was down 2 points at US$12.26 per bushel. March lost 1.50 points, trading at US$12.33. May and July also traded lower, with losses of 1.25 and 1.50 points.
The USDA report that turned the market
The reversal began on Tuesday, November 10, when soybean futures rose by nearly 40 points at one point. The trigger was the monthly report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which brought a positive surprise for buyers and for traders holding long positions.
The USDA estimated US final stocks for the 2026/27 crop at about 8.16 million tonnes. That is below the 8.57 million tonnes it projected in October and below what the market expected. In other words, less soybean was left at the end of the season.
Tight supply, firm demand
US production was estimated at 124.5 million tonnes, while exports were revised to 46.8 million tonnes. Globally, final stocks fell to 123.5 million tonnes. The USDA's picture is of a tighter balance between supply and demand.
Demand remains the main support. The USDA kept its projection for Chinese imports in the 2026/27 season at 115 million tonnes, and world consumption remains high. Meanwhile, the market is watching closely what happens with the new South American crop.
Why it matters for Brazil
Soybean prices are quoted in US dollars per bushel, a unit of measure that for soybeans equals about 27 kilograms. Brazil is one of the world's largest soybean producers. Planting progress and weather conditions there are cited as the main factors that will shape supply expectations in the coming months.
At home, the calculation carries a different weight. The recent rise of the US dollar against the Brazilian real and movements in export premiums directly influence soybean prices at ports and in the interior.
In short, even as Chicago gives back some ground, Brazilian producers cannot look only at the American screen. The exchange rate and export premiums determine how much is left at the end of the sale.
VDD Analysis
The USDA figures point to a tighter balance in the United States, which supports grain prices. For Brazilian farmers, the math improves when the weather cooperates, the exchange rate does not surprise, and logistics and costs do not eat up their margins. Predictability and free markets are worth as much as any crop report.
