By Bruno Donizette
Corn prices rose on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Tuesday, November 10, after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its estimates for American corn production and ending stocks. The USDA's new report signals less corn available in the United States, the world's largest corn producer.
US crop estimate cut
The USDA lowered its projected corn yield from 189.6 to 187.9 sacas (bags) per hectare. As a result, its estimate for US production fell to 403.71 million metric tons, a reduction of 3.57 million metric tons from the previous report.
Even with projected exports falling, the USDA also revised US ending stocks down, to 44.67 million metric tons. The stocks-to-use ratio was estimated at 10.8%.
Chicago rises, but gains fade
At the close, CBOT corn futures gained 9 to 9.75 points, more than 1%. During the session, however, the rise at one point exceeded 3%. The December contract ended at US$4.49 per bushel, and the March contract at US$4.61.
Brazil's B3 and the dollar
On the B3, Brazil's stock exchange, where corn futures are quoted in reais per saca (a 60-kilogram bag), prices rose for most contract months, even with the prospect of more Brazilian supply. The November 2026 contract closed at R$67.47 per saca, up 0.54%. The January 2027 contract ended at R$71.47, up 0.59%. The March 2027 contract closed at R$75.23, up 0.31%. The May 2027 contract stood at R$74.23, up 0.23%.
The dollar also weighed on the market. The US currency closed the day at R$5.59 (Brazilian reais), up 1.48%, and exceeded R$5.60 during Tuesday's trading. For those selling grain in Brazil, a higher exchange rate means a more attractive price in reais.
On the Brazilian side, the USDA raised its projection for Brazil's national corn production from 139 million to 141 million metric tons, reinforcing expectations of greater availability of the grain in the country. According to Agrinvest Commodities, liquidity in the Brazilian physical market remains favorable, with sales estimated at 600,000 metric tons for the month. Firmer prices are encouraging sales, with exports participating and business advancing in the interior.
Why it matters
Brazil and the United States are both major corn producers, so changes in US supply estimates influence prices in Brazil. The B3 quotes corn in reais, so the exchange rate directly affects what Brazilian farmers and traders receive.
VDD Analysis
The number that matters most for Brazilian producers is not one day's rise in Chicago, but the forecast for a larger harvest in the country. When domestic supply grows, the local market tends to see limited gains, and those who depend on a high exchange rate to sustain their income need to know that this advantage may not last.
