By Carol Amancio
Brazil's Liberal Party (PL) believes it is just three votes away from electing the next president of the Senate. The party is expected to formally launch the candidacy of Senator Rogério Marinho of Rio Grande do Norte on Wednesday, November 4. The count is being made by party members and is already circulating behind the scenes as the biggest challenge yet to the leadership of Senate president Davi Alcolumbre.
How the PL counts its votes
According to the party's count, Marinho's candidacy starts with about 39 votes from allies. A simple majority would require three more. The PL's own bloc is its base, with 28 votes, but there is one doubt: Senator Eduardo Gomes (PL-TO), who party members say is negotiating a move to the PSD.
The Progressive Party (PP) would add two votes: that of Senator-elect Guilherme Derrite (São Paulo) and that of Tereza Cristina (Mato Grosso do Sul), who also intends to run for the presidency. In other words, an ally that helps add up the votes also has its own plan.
The Republicanos party accounts for at least five votes: Damares Alves (Federal District), Alan Rick (Acre), Evair de Mello (Espírito Santo), Hamilton Mourão (Rio Grande do Sul) and Mara Rocha (Acre). The New Party (Novo) completes the bloc with three names: Deltan Dallagnol (Paraná), Lahesio Bonfim and Marcel Van Hattem (Rio Grande do Sul).
Outside the right-wing bloc, Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) has said he will not vote for Davi Alcolumbre's re-election as Senate president. The PL's most optimistic estimates go further, pointing to 48 to 49 votes for Marinho. Those figures include possible support from Styvenson Valentim (Podemos) and Mauro Mendes (União), but neither has been confirmed yet.
What is at stake
The Senate president controls the agenda, sets the pace of votes and decides which bills move forward and which are shelved. With the Lula government relying on Congress, having an opposition figure in that post would change the balance of power in a deep way. That is why every vote is being fought over closely.
The next steps depend on three fronts: the formal launch of Marinho's candidacy on Wednesday, the decision of Eduardo Gomes, and the position of Tereza Cristina, who also wants the seat. The Senate chooses its president in February, and each move could change the count before then.
Background
The Senate is the upper house of Brazil's National Congress. Its president leads the chamber's sessions and is one of the most influential posts in the country's legislative process. The Workers' Party (PT) leads the Lula government, while the PL is the main opposition party in Congress.
VDD Analysis
If the PL's numbers hold, the Senate would have the chance to be led by someone who represents the agenda of freedom, security and responsibility with taxpayers' money, rather than by someone who simply accommodates the Planalto Palace. But a vote count before an election is a promise, and Congress's track record shows that unity on the right has to be built until the very last minute, with Tereza Cristina and Eduardo Gomes as the most sensitive pieces.
