By Ricardo Luiz
Brazil's Liberal Party (PL) on Wednesday, November 4, launched Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), the current leader of the opposition in the Senate, as its candidate for president of the Senate, the chamber's top post. The bid has formal backing from the New Party (Novo). The stated goal is to prevent Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) from remaining in the post from 2027 onward.
Marinho's allies believe the numbers can work, even without formal support from other parties. Brazil's Senate has 81 members, so 41 votes are needed to win.
The numbers: 41 votes and a secret ballot
The starting point is full loyalty from the two blocs that back the challenge: the 29 PL senators and the three Novo senators, for a total of 32. That leaves nine votes to find. According to the group's calculations, those votes would come from four senators from the Republicanos, two from the Progressistas (PP), one from the MDB, one from Podemos and one from the PSD. Added together, they reach exactly 41, with no margin for error.
The biggest obstacle is that the vote is secret. In a close contest, betrayal can come from any side, and no camp can be sure its arrangements will hold at the ballot box.
Alcolumbre's counterattack
The União Progressista federation has formally announced its support for Alcolumbre's re-election. According to scenarios drawn up by his allies, he could also count on votes from dissidents within the PL's own caucus, so the opposition's tactic could be turned back on it.
To shield Marinho's candidacy, PL members are pressing party senators to publicly declare their vote in his favor. The idea is to turn that public exposure into a political weapon against Alcolumbre.
The clock: February 1
The Senate's leadership vote is scheduled for February 1, the same day lawmakers in the Chamber of Deputies choose their president. Until then, the opposition must hold its unity, keep up the pressure and win over nine senators from other parties who have already declared support for the current president. Negotiations behind the scenes will proceed one vote at a time.
Why it matters
The Senate president presides over the chamber and sets its agenda, which makes the post one of the most powerful in Brazil's Congress. The Liberal Party, led in the chamber by former president Jair Bolsonaro's political camp, is the largest opposition force in the Senate.
VDD Analysis
Fielding a candidate of its own is what an opposition that wants to be an opposition should do: it refuses to accept re-election as a done deal. The arithmetic is tight and depends on total loyalty and on nine votes that have no formal owner yet. But the race shows that the Senate does not have to be a territory with a single candidate. If Marinho keeps his caucus united, the right could move out of a supporting role and genuinely contest control of the chamber.
