By Ludmila Cassio
Senators from the Liberal Party (PL), the Novo party and the Progressistas (PP) will meet next Tuesday, the 3rd, in Brasília to declare official support for Rogério Marinho, of the PL, in the race for the presidency of Brazil's Senate starting in 2027. The meeting is meant to serve as the formal launch of his candidacy and as a show of strength. It also complicates the plans of Davi Alcolumbre, who is seeking reelection to the post.
Marinho's numbers in the Brazilian Senate
The count circulating behind the scenes favors Marinho. According to the source, the PL will have 28 senators with voting rights from 2027, and Novo adds three more. The two parties alone already add up to 31 votes.
In the PP, more than half of the caucus has already signaled support for Marinho. That movement, the report says, is what could turn the contest around.
PP split scrambles Alcolumbre's plan
Officially, the PP issued a joint note with União Brasil backing Alcolumbre's reelection. In practice, the party is divided. A wing tied to Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) opposes the decision.
Four of the PP's six senators are already with Marinho:
- Guilherme Derrite;
- Tereza Cristina;
- Laércio Oliveira;
- Hiran Gonçalves.
The joint note, which was supposed to shield the reelection bid, does not guarantee that the caucus will vote as a bloc.
Why it matters: the opposition's strategy and the Supreme Court
The effort is not improvised. It began during the presidential campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro, a PL senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022). The stated goal is to expand the opposition's ability to act in the Senate.
Two fronts are at the center of the strategy. The first is impeachment motions against justices of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest court. The second is the review of future nominations by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT), to the court. Whoever presides over the Senate controls the pace of those discussions, and that is what is at stake.
What comes next
Tuesday's meeting will show how many senators are willing to appear publicly alongside Marinho. It should also indicate whether the PP split will widen and whether the group can turn the effort into a majority. Alcolumbre, who is running for reelection, will have to decide whether to hold his base together or watch support drain away.
VDD Analysis
An organized opposition with its own candidate and a clear agenda is healthy for the balance among the branches of government. Those who defend checks and balances, and more oversight of judicial decisions and of the Lula government's nominations, have reason to follow Marinho's candidacy closely. The contest will be decided by the senators' votes, and Tuesday's message will show whether the right arrives united in 2027.
