By Carol Amancio
The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is racing against the clock. According to the Brazilian press, Lula tends to name the successor to Justice Luís Roberto Barroso on the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest court, before the end of 2026. The goal is to get the nominee approved before 2027, when a new Senate with more right-wing lawmakers takes office.
The Senate math behind Lula's rush
The calculation is political and straightforward. Starting next year, the Liberal Party (PL), the party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, will hold 28 seats in the Senate. Nineteen of those seats were won in the October elections. The Planalto, the presidential palace, wants to get around this new balance of power.
Bringing the nomination forward is meant to keep the change in the Senate's makeup from hurting the nominee's chances. Put another way, the government wants to secure the Supreme Court seat before the voters, who gave the right more strength at the ballot box, are reflected in the confirmation hearing.
Lula has not yet settled on a name. The choice is expected to be announced after next week.
The April defeat that still weighs on the government
The Planalto has a reason to hurry. In April, the Senate rejected Jorge Messias, Brazil's attorney general (advogado-geral da União). It was the government's biggest defeat in the Legislature of this term. Even so, after his reelection, Lula signaled to allies that he intends to insist on Messias. The name continues to face resistance.
Government negotiators in Congress want a different path: a nominee whose acceptance in the Senate is already guaranteed. They want someone backed by Senate president Davi Alcolumbre and by the party leaders in the chamber.
Rodrigo Pacheco on the radar
This group's favorite is Rodrigo Pacheco, a former Senate president who is now a justice on the Federal Audit Court (TCU), the body that oversees federal public spending. The standoff is clear. On one side is the president's insistence on Messias. On the other is the message from people who work the halls of Congress and know the mood of the senators.
The coming days will show whether Lula yields to the pressure for a more palatable name or digs in and risks another defeat. If he picks Messias again, he will face a Senate that has already blocked him once. If he chooses someone else, he will have to acknowledge that the April rejection took its toll.
Why it matters
Justices of the STF are nominated by the president of Brazil and must be approved by the Senate after a hearing. That makes each vacancy a test of the president's strength in Congress. The Senate that takes office in 2027 will have a larger right-wing presence, and the fight over Barroso's seat will show how far Lula is willing to go to shape the court before then.
VDD Analysis
Picking a Supreme Court justice in a hurry, just to escape a Senate more in line with the right-leaning vote, gives the impression that the government fears the scrutiny the new Congress may exercise. For a seat this important, respect for the will expressed at the ballot box should weigh more than a calendar convenient to the Planalto.
