By Carol Amancio
The future of Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) will be decided less by the presidential ballot than by the Senate leadership vote scheduled for February 1, according to Brazilian jurist Ives Gandra Martins. In his view, the election of the next Senate president weighs more heavily on the justice than the question of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election.
Who controls the Senate agenda controls impeachment
Gandra Martins' assessment is blunt. The person who runs the Senate agenda decides whether an impeachment process moves forward or stays frozen. In the jurist's words: "If it's Alcolumbre, Alexandre de Moraes is safe. If it's someone more conservative, of course he runs a risk."
In other words, the power to open or lock the door rests with whoever sits in the Senate president's chair.
One-third of the Senate is not enough
Gandra noted that the bench of the Liberal Party (PL), the party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, makes up about one-third of the Senate. Even if that group filed an impeachment request, approval would depend on the willingness of the Senate president to put the matter to a vote.
For that reason, the jurist has no doubt about what is at stake. "The big battle will be the election for Senate president," he said.
Alcolumbre vs. Marinho
The race already has its main players. Davi Alcolumbre, of the União Brasil party, is seeking re-election. On the other side is Rogério Marinho, of the PL, whose name was put forward by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on Friday.
The February contest therefore pits the Senate's current leadership against a candidate backed by the Bolsonaro wing of Brazilian politics.
Flávio Bolsonaro in the United States
Gandra Martins also commented on Flávio Bolsonaro's stay in the United States. According to the jurist, the senator is likely to spend time abroad, where he finds greater freedom to speak out.
Why it matters
In Brazil, the Senate is the body that handles impeachment requests against Supreme Court justices, and the Senate president decides whether they advance. That makes the leadership vote a central issue for the balance between the branches of government. Moraes is one of the most prominent justices on the STF, Brazil's highest court.
Until February 1, the courting of votes on the Senate floor is expected to set the pace of politics in Brasília. The result will show who controls the Senate agenda in the coming years and, according to Gandra, how much pressure the Supreme Court will face.
VDD Analysis
Gandra's reading shows that control of the Senate agenda is one of the strongest tools of oversight over any branch of government, including the Judiciary. For those who defend freedom and balance among institutions, the February election matters far more than the routine of Brasília lets on, and voters who want an independent Senate should follow every move in this race.
With information from Topic News.
