By Indianara Goz
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) said in a video published Sunday, Nov. 1, that he will keep his campaign promises. But reports on the cost of those promises, starting with education, show a bill that the president did not explain. The video came one week after his reelection and after a week in which he had not appeared in public.
What Lula said about his campaign promises
In the video, Lula declared: "no social program will be extinguished in this country." According to the outlet Congresso em Foco, he added: "Everything that was promised in the campaign, you can be sure it will happen."
The president blamed the "far right" for rumors that programs such as Bolsa Família (Brazil's flagship cash-transfer program for low-income families) and Gás do Povo were ending. According to the outlet WSCOM, the government's communication office (Secom) had already denied, on Tuesday (Oct. 27), posts claiming payments would be suspended. Fact-checking agencies found old videos and news items taken out of context. The government also says the constitutional amendment to end the 6x1 work schedule (six days of work, one day off) remains unchanged.
One point is clear: Lula announced no new measure in the address. He restated commitments but did not say where the money will come from.
The education bill: at least R$ 7.2 billion
Reporting by Jornal de Brasília, reproduced by Blog do BG, says that keeping the promises in education alone will require at least R$ 7.2 billion (Brazilian reais) in additional funds for the Education Ministry (MEC). That figure counts only two items:
- Extending Pé-de-Meia, a student-support program, to all public high school students. This would cost another R$ 5 billion a year and raise the program's cost from R$ 12 billion to R$ 17 billion.
- A university version, Pé-de-Meia Universitário, with an initial estimated cost of R$ 4.6 billion for 485,000 students, with scholarships of R$ 700 a month for ten months and savings of R$ 2,500 at the end of each year of undergraduate study.
Other promises have no cost estimate: expanding the federal institutes, bringing back the Science Without Borders program with a focus on technology and artificial intelligence, and making full-time schooling universal.
The draft 2027 budget sets aside R$ 246 billion for the MEC, a nominal rise of 6% over 2026. Inflation from January to September was 3.95%. Congress has not yet approved the text. The report also notes that the MEC has already pulled funds from areas such as full-time education and literacy to pay for the current Pé-de-Meia. Universalizing the program will require changing the law, which today limits it to low-income students.
What the government answers
The Finance Ministry says the amounts would not, in full, represent an additional impact on the budget. It says it will send Congress "the necessary adjustments," respecting the primary balance target and the fiscal framework (the government's spending rule). The Planning Ministry said any changes will be discussed with lawmakers. MEC leaders expect that putting the programs into operation will not be immediate, which could delay spending.
Why it matters: a bigger gap behind the promises
A document sent to Congress, revealed by the newspaper Estadão, already pointed to funding shortfalls of R$ 15.8 billion in 2028, R$ 14.9 billion in 2029 and R$ 23 billion in 2030. According to the paper, three campaign promises would require at least R$ 39.8 billion more in 2027: an increase in Bolsa Família, R$ 5,000 for MEIs (individual microentrepreneurs) and free public transit on weekends. Education adds to that list. According to Jornal de Brasília, the costliest education promises were not even in the government platform and were announced during the campaign.
The two issues are separate. The government's denial addresses rumors that programs would end. It does not answer the doubts raised by budget consultancies about how to pay for new benefits.
VDD Analysis
Promising is cheap; delivering is expensive. The president has the right to deny rumors, and the government has shown that payments are still being made on time. But saying no program will end does not explain where tens of billions of reais for the new promises will come from. With a budget still under debate, a package of giveaways that has already passed R$ 234 billion and growth forecasts more optimistic than the market's, taxpayers have reason to demand numbers and deadlines. Between speech and spreadsheet, it is the spreadsheet that will show who told the truth in the campaign.
