By Indianara Goz
The race for the US Congress is far from settled. Opinion polls published ahead of the midterm elections, which are held halfway through a president's term and this time fall during Donald Trump's presidency, show a tight contest. Most surveys give the Democratic Party an edge in favorability, but the numbers reveal an awkward detail: both parties are viewed more unfavorably than favorably.
US midterm polls: Democrats ahead, but with a negative balance
The RealClearPolling aggregator shows the Democratic Party with 40.2% favorable and 54.9% unfavorable, a net rating of -14.7 points. The Republican Party stands at 37.7% favorable and 58.0% unfavorable, a net of -20.3 points.
In other words, the party in the lead still has more people against it than for it. In practice, neither side comes out of the polls in good shape.
ABC, Washington Post and Ipsos poll confirms the trend
A survey by ABC News in partnership with The Washington Post and Ipsos, conducted October 10-13, follows the same pattern. Democrats register 43% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Republicans have 38% and 60%, respectively.
Economist/YouGov shows a statistical tie
Not every poll tells the same story. The Economist/YouGov survey, conducted October 23-26, points to a statistical tie. Both parties show 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable, with an identical net rating of -8 points.
The gap between that result and those of other pollsters shows how unstable the picture is. Surveys by Fox News, CNN and the NBC News Decision Desk reinforce the trend of better Democratic performance on favorability, but all of them record negative ratings for both sides.
What is at stake for Trump
The outcome at the ballot box will weigh directly on the president's ability to govern and on the makeup of Congress in the coming years. Voters will deliver their verdict on the policies of the first years of his term.
The next chapter is in the voters' hands. Favorability is not a vote, and the statistical tie in one of the main polls indicates the election may be decided by whoever manages to win over undecided voters and bring their own supporters to the polls.
Why it matters
Midterm elections renew the entire US House of Representatives and part of the Senate. The result shapes how much room the White House has to pass its agenda, which is why the polls are closely watched abroad, including in Brazil.
VDD Analysis
A favorability poll measures mood, not ballots. The numbers show that American voters are dissatisfied with both sides, and that the Democratic opposition, even while ahead, carries a rejection rate above 50% in almost every survey cited. For those who defend freedom, lower taxes and leaner government, the message is that the race remains open and that voter mobilization will count for more than any poll.
With information from Topic News.
