By Ricardo Luiz
The race to lead Brazil's Chamber of Deputies now has a clear favorite. Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), the current Chamber president, has gathered a coalition so broad that his reelection in February 2027 is already treated as nearly certain behind the scenes in Brasília. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party (PL), the largest caucus in the House, is expected to back him but wants something in return, according to Brazilian reports.
Hugo Motta's reelection: the numbers
According to the outlet Poder360, the parties supporting Motta's reappointment add up to 338 deputies. That is 81 more than the 257 votes needed to win. The Jornal Grande Bahia, another Brazilian outlet, works with a potential coalition of 328 deputies. The figures vary by source, but all point to a comfortable margin.
The topic also circulated on the X account @NewsLiberdade, which spoke of 333 guaranteed votes. In its post, the account said Motta has the support of almost all parties and that those votes come without the PL, which, it claimed, had said it would not back the reelection of the current Chamber president.
The reports consulted by VDD describe a different picture.
PL set to back Motta, but wants Senate and CCJ posts
According to Portal Guaíra and Spaço FM, the PL should support Motta's reelection but wants concessions. The main one is the presidency of the Senate, with the nomination of Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). Spaço FM reports that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a PL senator, has already announced his intention to run Marinho against Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP).
The PL's final decision will be discussed at a caucus meeting on Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 6 p.m. The meeting is also expected to address how posts in the Legislature will be divided.
The party elected 121 deputies, making it the largest caucus in the Chamber. The Brasil da Esperança Federation, which brings together the Workers' Party (PT), the Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB) and the Green Party (PV), came second with 88. According to Jornal Grande Bahia, even that weight does not guarantee the presidency on its own. The vote for the Chamber's governing board is secret and requires an absolute majority in the first round, and the ability to form coalitions counts for more than the size of a caucus.
Before leaning toward Motta, the PL considered running its own candidate, with Sóstenes Cavalcante and Altineu Côrtes among the names floated. The idea lost steam in the face of the current president's maneuvering, which, according to Spaço FM, already brings together 15 parties, including the PT.
Among the PL's interests is control of committees, especially the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), which Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) intends to chair. The formation of blocs influences the order in which these posts are chosen.
On Oct. 14, União Brasil, PP, PSD, Republicanos, MDB, the PSDB-Cidadania federation and Podemos announced they would keep a center bloc together. According to Jornal Grande Bahia, it should bring together 240 deputies and back Motta.
Why it matters
The Chamber of Deputies is one of the two houses of Brazil's Congress, and its president controls much of the legislative agenda. A majority of 257 votes is needed in the 513-seat House. With the PL as the biggest caucus, its choice between backing Motta and bargaining for posts, or going its own way, shapes how much influence the Brazilian right will have in the next Congress, in a base that also includes the PT.
What comes next
The next step is the PL caucus meeting on Tuesday, where the party's official position and its package of demands are expected to emerge. The Senate dispute, where Alcolumbre says he has at least 48 votes, will be the other big test of the party's strength.
VDD Analysis
The PL has the largest caucus and the advantage of negotiating from the top. If it backs Motta, it should do so by demanding space proportional to its size, such as the CCJ and a competitive Senate candidacy. The right cannot become a bit player in a base that includes the PT. The votes of those who represent millions of voters are worth more than courtesy gestures.
With information from jornalgrandebahia.com.br, portalguaira.com, poder360.com.br, spacofm.com.br and the @NewsLiberdade profile on X.
