By Ricardo Luiz
A single phrase in the Brazilian Senate's rulebook is costing the opposition sleep. Allies of Senator Rogério Marinho (of the Liberal Party, PL, from Rio Grande do Norte state) and Senator Tereza Cristina (of the Progressives party, PP, from Mato Grosso do Sul state) fear that Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União, from Amapá state) will use a procedural interpretation to skip the runoff in the election for the chamber's presidency. Under that reading, whoever gets the most votes would be declared the winner, even without reaching 41 senators, the absolute majority of the 81-member chamber.
The rule loophole worrying Brazil's opposition
Everything turns on Article 60 of the Senate's internal rules. It covers the election of the Mesa Diretora, the body that runs the chamber, and requires only a "majority of votes." It does not say expressly what happens when more than two candidates compete for the top job.
Experts in Senate procedure who were consulted say the provision assumes all 81 senators are present. On that reading, 41 votes would be needed to elect a president. But there is another, literal reading that allows a win by simple majority and eliminates the second round.
That is the source of the concern. The question was settled in an earlier procedural ruling, and according to the assessment heard by opposition figures, nothing prevents the current president from changing that understanding.
Senate precedents contradict each other
The Senate's history does not settle the doubt. In 2021 there was an agreement to adopt the literal interpretation of Article 60, and Rodrigo Pacheco was elected in a single round with 57 votes. But specialists note that conflicting procedural rulings have addressed the issue over time, and some of them required an absolute majority.
The case carries extra weight because of one detail: the Senate has never had an election so tight that the winner finished below 41 votes against his or her rivals. That is exactly the scenario the opposition fears. Alcolumbre would collect more votes than his rivals in the first round but fall short of 41, and would invoke the literal wording of the rules to end the contest on the spot.
Opposition unity becomes the watchword
The fear has reinforced the opposition's sense of urgency about arriving at the vote united. With votes scattered among several candidacies, the chance of a winner without an absolute majority grows. For that reason, the idea of a joint arrangement is circulating: Marinho would step aside in favor of Tereza Cristina, or she would drop out to back him.
The Senate presidency said it will commission a legal opinion on the matter before the election. That document is likely to be decisive, because it could define how the result is counted and whether or not there will be a second round.
Why it matters
The Senate president is one of the most powerful figures in Brazilian politics, running the agenda of the upper house of Congress. How the vote is counted could decide who gets the job, which is why the opposition is paying close attention to the wording of the rules as well as to the vote count.
What comes next
The next steps are the presidency's legal opinion and coordination among opposition senators. Until then, the contest has two fronts: votes and rules. Whoever reads the rulebook first, and whoever unites first, may come out ahead.
VDD Analysis
In an election to lead one of the branches of government, a clear rule known in advance is the minimum that should be expected. Changing the interpretation of the rules close to the vote, or leaving the doubt open until the last minute, only creates uncertainty. For the opposition, the message is practical: without unity and without a clear agreement on the counting method, there is a risk of being caught off guard. It is up to the Senate presidency to release the legal opinion early and guarantee transparency in the process.
