By Ricardo Luiz
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, could see his closed-regime sentence drop from 27 years and 3 months to about 2 years and 4 months. According to reporting by CNN Brasil, that would happen if the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest court, validates the new sentencing rules approved by the National Congress. The rules are known in Brazil as the dosimetria, the method used to calculate the length of a sentence.
How the recalculation would work
The difference is dramatic: from more than two decades to just over two years. The recalculation would take into account mitigating factors and the rules for progression of sentencing regimes currently in force in the country. Under the projections reported, Bolsonaro could reach partial freedom at the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028.
Who would do the math
If the new rules are validated, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the rapporteur of the January 8 cases, would individually recalculate the sentences of Bolsonaro and of everyone else convicted over the events of that day. The January 8 cases concern the storming of government buildings in Brasília in 2023. According to the report, the group includes generals, police chiefs and police officers. The change would therefore not affect just one name, but the whole group.
No trial date at the Supreme Court
So far, the issue has not been placed on the STF's agenda, and there is no date for the justices to meet and decide on the constitutionality of the new rules. After the recalculation, the case is expected to go to the full court or to the First Panel (Primeira Turma) for a final decision.
There is also risk in the scenario. If the STF decides the measure is unconstitutional, the new rules would be struck down and Bolsonaro's original sentence of 27 years and 3 months would stand. Everything depends on the court's final word.
Why it matters: the political backdrop
The political context also plays a role. There are at least 30 senators allied with Bolsonaro in the Federal Senate, a weight that may influence the pace of institutional decisions. While the Supreme Court has not yet made its ruling, the question over the former president's future remains open.
The story shows how a decision by elected lawmakers could collide with the judiciary in Brazil. Congress passed the new rules, but the last word belongs to the STF.
VDD Analysis
Proportionality of sentences is a principle that should apply to everyone. If the sentencing rules approved by the elected representatives are confirmed, the debate over legal certainty and the limits of punishment gains strength. The STF now has the chance to show that a law passed by Congress will be respected.
With information from CNN Brasil and Topic News.
