By Ludmila Cassio
Senator Rogério Marinho of the Liberal Party (PL) from Rio Grande do Norte state launches his candidacy for president of Brazil's Senate on Wednesday. He presents himself as the main opposition force against the current Senate president, Davi Alcolumbre (União, from Amapá state), who is seeking reelection with the support of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Workers' Party (PT).
What stands out is the message Marinho took to the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil's highest court, even before the launch.
Talks with the Supreme Court, but no blank check
In recent days, Marinho spoke with justices of the STF. One of the conversations was with the court's president, Edson Fachin. Marinho said that, if elected, he will build an institutional partnership between the Senate and the Supreme Court.
He made clear, however, that he will not be silent in the face of complaints against members of the court. According to the source, no specific justice was mentioned in the conversation with Fachin.
In other words: dialogue yes, blank check no.
Free-market reforms and impeachments at the center
The core of the candidacy is the defense of liberalizing economic reforms and the promotion of impeachment proceedings against STF justices. Marinho coordinated the campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, Rio de Janeiro) and represents the most confrontational position toward the court.
The contrast with Alcolumbre is direct. Behind the scenes, the current Senate president advocates a "pacification" based on amnesty for those convicted over the January 8 riots and on the release of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Brazil's president from 2019 to 2022.
The vote count is not there yet
Marinho counts on the support of 29 PL senators. To win, he needs 41 votes, so he is 12 short.
The opposition has another candidate, Senator Tereza Cristina of the Progressistas party (PP, Mato Grosso do Sul). Last week she and Marinho tried to unify their candidacies but did not reach an agreement. With the right divided, the governing camp and Alcolumbre's group gain breathing room.
Why it matters
The Senate president runs the chamber's agenda and is the official who can decide whether impeachment requests against Supreme Court justices move forward. Because of that, this race could affect the balance among Brazil's branches of government. A candidate who openly puts such proceedings on the table, against an incumbent backed by Lula, makes the vote a test of how far the Senate is willing to scrutinize the court.
What comes next
The next step is vote-building. Marinho needs to expand his base beyond the PL, and pressure for a single opposition candidacy is likely to grow. It remains to be seen whether he and Tereza Cristina return to the negotiating table or whether the split reaches the Senate floor.
VDD Analysis
Those who defend balance among the branches of government have reason to watch this race closely: a Senate that fulfills its role of overseeing all institutions, treating none as untouchable, is healthy for democracy and for citizens' freedom. The division of the opposition, however, is the biggest risk for those who want that change, and the facts show that 29 votes are still far from the 41 needed.
