By Camilo Diniz
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party, PT) landed in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, in the early hours of Friday (13), Brasília time. The trip combines a state visit with the summit of leaders of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But the trade agenda the presidency wants to take home still depends on negotiations with no end date.
Pork ban, ethanol and critical minerals on the Manila agenda
The official program begins Saturday (14) with a bilateral meeting and a lunch with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. On the agenda are issues that directly affect Brazilian producers: the Philippine ban on pork, ethanol sales and partnerships on critical minerals.
The ban is the most uncomfortable item on the list. It already exists, and the source gives no indication that it will be lifted.
Canada and Singapore: trade talks after the summit
After the summit, Lula will meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Their talks are expected to focus on a free trade agreement between Canada and Mercosur, the South American trade bloc that includes Brazil. Negotiations resumed in 2025 and remain at the discussion stage. In other words, there is no closed deal to show voters.
Lula's meeting with Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is the first since Brazil deposited its ratification of the Mercosur free trade agreement with Singapore. Under the text, Singapore will zero tariffs on 100% of Brazilian exports, becoming the first country to do so for the South American bloc. The government says the agreement takes effect bilaterally among the countries that have already ratified it.
Why Brazil is looking to Asia
The trip comes as Brazil and Canada look for new buyers in the face of tariffs imposed in 2025 by US President Donald Trump. The American tariffs are one of the reasons Lula is aiming more strongly at Southeast Asia. This is the second consecutive time he attends the ASEAN summit at the invitation of the country chairing the bloc; in 2025 it was Malaysia.
The government also wants Brazil to move from "sectoral dialogue partner" to "full dialogue partner" with ASEAN. In practice, the change would give Brazil access to more meetings and broader consultation channels. Singapore takes over the bloc's rotating presidency in 2027, and government officials expect the new status to be announced at the summit. For now, that is an expectation, not an announced decision.
What comes next
Lula is expected to speak at the opening ceremony of the summit on Sunday (15) morning, local time. That is where the government will need to show that the trip produced more than photos, promises of preferential treatment and conversations with no date to become contracts.
VDD Analysis
The trip has a geopolitical logic, but the results need to show up for Brazilian producers and exporters. While Philippine pork remains blocked, the Canada deal is still under discussion and the new ASEAN status depends on a future announcement, Lula arrives in Manila with more promises than deliveries. Those who pay for diplomacy that does not close deals are the ones who sell abroad.
