By Carol Amancio
Gilberto Kassab, national president of Brazil's Social Democratic Party (PSD), said he wants to talk with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva about joining the government's support base starting next year. He spoke on the night of Thursday, Nov. 12, at an event of the group Todos pela Educação at the Ibirapuera Auditorium, in the south zone of São Paulo. Behind the friendly tone, however, the government's demand is clear: it wants votes before it hands out any posts.
Kassab praises the fiscal adjustment and keeps the door open
Kassab said no meeting with Lula has been scheduled yet, but that the party sees room to bring positions closer together. He also praised the fiscal adjustment package that the Planalto, the presidential palace, sent to the Senate, with an estimated impact of up to R$ 60 billion (Brazilian reais). The proposal calls for spending controls and a review of tax benefits, in an attempt to secure balanced public accounts in 2027.
“In these first days of Lula 4, I liked his speech signaling fiscal balance, I liked the government's posture of already sending some adjustments,” Kassab said.
The praise came with a condition. “Two things will guide the PSD's relationship with the government,” Kassab said, citing the party's hope that the administration succeeds and its search for programmatic proximity on public policy.
Ministries are “secondary,” says Kassab
Asked about the Esplanada, the row of government ministries in Brasília, Kassab sidestepped the issue that usually drives any centrist party. “The question of ministries is secondary for us. The most important thing is that we [the PSD] can take part and collaborate in programs, especially in the economic field,” he said.
The context weighs on that statement. The PSD came out of the election with limited strength: Kassab ran for vice president on Ronaldo Caiado's ticket, which finished with 2.6 million votes, or 2.18% of valid votes in the first round. The party therefore arrives at the negotiating table with little electoral weight and a strong wish to take part.
The price of joining Lula's base
Behind the scenes, the Planalto's guidance is clear: parties that want to join the base must deliver more votes in favor of the government's proposals in Congress. The idea is to first settle a common agenda and measure how much support each party can bring to the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. In other words, the tally will be made on the floor of Congress, not in appointments.
The first talks are led by Edinho Silva, national president of Lula's Workers' Party (PT), chosen by Lula for the task. He has already spoken with Kassab and with Baleia Rossi, president of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and is expected to finish this stage with centrist party leaders by the end of the week.
Lula is expected to begin a round of direct talks next week, after returning from an international trip. The PSD and Republicanos are among the first in line, along with Podemos, the MDB, the Progressive Party (PP) and União Brasil.
Why it matters
Kassab said he is waiting for the choice of finance minister before gauging how close the PSD will get to the government. Until then, the PSD is trying to sell itself as a programmatic partner, while the Planalto tries to buy support with its economic agenda and floor votes. If the adjustment of up to R$ 60 billion moves forward, the burden of cutting spending and reviewing benefits will fall on the government. The political bill for any such alliance could come next year, when the effects of the measures begin to be felt.
VDD Analysis
The PSD's approach shows that the Lula government needs centrist allies to unlock its agenda in Congress, not the other way around. When a party with just over 2% of the valid votes in the presidential election appears as a decisive piece, the message to conservative voters is caution: what is being negotiated behind the scenes is support in votes, and the bill for any adjustment usually lands in the taxpayer's pocket.
