By Luiz Carlos Salomão
U.S. cotton futures closed the week lower in New York and ended October without momentum. On Friday, October 30, the December 2026 contract fell 0.67 cent (-0.85%) to 77.90 cents per pound. For the week, the decline reached 2.30 cents, a loss of 2.87% since October 23. Other contracts also fell: March 2027 dropped to 81.65 cents, May 2027 closed at 83.32 cents and July 2027 at 83.79 cents.
Prices slip but do not collapse
The market did not crash during the month. The December 2026 contract lost 0.79% in October, while the March 2027 and May 2027 contracts posted slight gains of about 0.3%.
U.S. sales rise but lag the usual pace
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show mixed signals. Export sales commitments for the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 5.665 million bales as of October 22, 16% more than in the same period last year. The problem is pace: that volume equals 49% of the agency's export projection, while the five-year average for the same point in the season is 56%. In other words, buyers have not yet secured the share they typically lock in at this stage.
Harvest advances, but crop quality is a concern
In the U.S. crop, harvesting is moving ahead actively under good working conditions, according to analyst Jack Scoville. So far, 52% of the area has been harvested and 89% of the bolls are open. However, only 33% of fields are rated good to excellent.
The outlook depends on how the market reacts to upcoming crops and new export figures. If sales remain below the historical average, pressure on prices is likely to persist.
Background
Cotton prices are quoted in U.S. cents per pound, and futures contracts are named by delivery month and year. The USDA's export data are closely watched because they show whether foreign buyers are committing to U.S. supply. Brazil is also one of the world's major cotton producers and exporters, so price movements in New York matter to Brazilian growers competing in the same international markets.
VDD Analysis
The numbers show a market that is selling more than last year, but still selling slowly. For producers, the price abroad determines the bottom line at the end of the month, and those who depend on exports feel every lost cent. In a scenario of tight margins, cutting costs and having more freedom to negotiate with the market remains the safest path.
Information from Notícias Agrícolas.
