By Carol Amancio
Brazil's Liberal Party (PL) now has 29 senators, the largest single-party bench in the Senate since 1988. That gives it a powerful tool: a say over who sits on the country's highest court, the Supreme Federal Court (STF). This is the conclusion of an analysis published by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, which names Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the party's number-one target.
Impeachment of justices was a campaign banner
During the election campaign, the PL and its candidates defended the impeachment of STF justices, with Moraes as the main target. According to the analysis, the strategy gains strength for a simple reason: each justice removed opens a seat that, in theory, would be filled by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party (PT). That is exactly what the PL wants to avoid at all costs.
The Senate can say no
Brazil's Constitution gives the Senate the final word on presidential nominations to the Supreme Court. With a robust bench, the chamber can block names until the government presents someone the senators like. The analysis recalls that the Senate has already rejected Jorge Messias, something that, according to the text, had not happened since the start of the Republic.
Two paths on the table
Folha describes two scenarios. In the first, the PL would strike a deal with the centrão, the bloc of center-right parties in Congress, to remove Moraes and make approval of his replacement conditional on a negotiation with Lula. In the second, more radical one, the Senate would block any replacement indefinitely.
The analysis notes that the second path is already a reality in Argentina. There, the Senate rejected both nominees put forward by President Javier Milei in 2025, and the Supreme Court was left with three judges instead of five. With that composition, every decision requires unanimity.
Why it matters: empty seats and the succession clock
The Supreme Court is the final arbiter of constitutional questions in Brazil and normally has 11 justices. In Brazil, the seat of Justice Barroso has been empty since October 2025. If the Senate blocks new nominations, the court could reach the next presidential election with several vacancies. With the retirement of Justice Gilmar Mendes in December 2030, the next president could find up to five seats to fill. The analysis also warns that, with seven justices, the court would not reach the quorum needed to rule on constitutional matters.
What comes next
So far, what exists is a strategic reading published by Folha, not an official plan announced by the party. But the math is clear: the PL has the votes, the campaign rhetoric and an open seat as a test. It remains to be seen whether the party will negotiate with the centrão or bet on total confrontation with the Planalto Palace, the seat of the presidency, over the makeup of the Supreme Court.
VDD Analysis
The Senate exercises a constitutional prerogative when it questions and approves Supreme Court justices, and the voters who gave the PL 29 seats sent a clear message about what they think of the court's activism. For those who see the Supreme Court as a branch that has overstepped its limits, it is legitimate for elected representatives to demand balance in nominations instead of accepting an automatic rubber stamp on the name chosen by Lula. The challenge is to turn that power into a check on excesses without paralyzing institutions, and that balance will be the bench's big test.
