By Bruno Donizette
Brazil woke up to heat and humidity on Wednesday (Nov. 4), and the danger is concentrated in the South. The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the country's official weather service, maintains a red warning, its category for great danger, for storms in northern Rio Grande do Sul, all of Santa Catarina and southern Paraná.
Red alert for storms in southern Brazil
The combination of high temperatures and humidity is feeding pockets of instability across the country. In the red-alert zone, the forecast calls for heavy rain, thunder and conditions favorable to severe storms, tied to a low-pressure system.
The cities included in the alert area are Francisco Beltrão, Pato Branco, União da Vitória and Guaratuba, in Paraná, and Passo Fundo, Erechim, Caxias do Sul, Santo Ângelo and Ijuí, in Rio Grande do Sul. In the rest of the region, an orange warning applies.
The paradox, as the source notes, is that temperatures keep climbing despite the threat. Curitiba, the Paraná state capital, may reach a high of 28°C (82°F), Florianópolis, the capital of Santa Catarina, should hit 27°C (81°F), and Porto Alegre, capital of Rio Grande do Sul, is not expected to go above 22°C (72°F).
Hot, muggy weather in the Southeast and Center-West
In the Southeast, the weather is hot and muggy, with showers throughout the day in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and southern Espírito Santo. The greatest risk is on the border between São Paulo and Paraná, under an orange warning. Temperatures may reach 34°C (93°F) in Vitória and 37°C (99°F) in Rio de Janeiro.
In the Center-West, rain with thunder covers much of the region. Southern Mato Grosso do Sul is under an orange warning, and Campo Grande may hit 36°C (97°F).
North and Northeast: showers in the west, sun on the coast
In the North, showers are concentrated in the west, in parts of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia and portions of Pará and Roraima. Boa Vista may reach 37°C (99°F). In the Northeast, sunshine predominates, with rain limited to isolated showers in central and southern Maranhão and Piauí and in western Bahia. Teresina is expected to register 39°C (102°F).
Outlook for Thursday, Nov. 5
On Thursday (Nov. 5), the picture changes in the South. Rain loses strength in Rio Grande do Sul, which will have sun in most of the state, but Paraná continues with showers and thunder under a yellow warning. The heat builds again in the Southeast, and the Northeast stays sunny along its beaches.
For people who live and work in the South, the guidance is simple: check Inmet's warnings before leaving home and take extra care with thunder and strong winds while the red alert is in force.
Why it matters
Southern Brazil includes major farming and industrial states, and severe weather there affects towns, rural producers and local governments. Inmet's color-coded system runs from yellow to orange to red, with red the highest level of alert.
VDD Analysis
When an official agency raises a red flag, the message is that the public needs to act quickly. In a country where storms have already caused damage in so many cities, the forecast should be taken seriously by families, producers and city governments.
