By Ludmila Cassio
Alexandre Guimarães, senator-elect for the state of Tocantins, said on social media that he will not vote for Davi Alcolumbre, the current president of Brazil's Senate, in the election scheduled for February 1, 2027. The statement runs against the position of national leaders of the MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement), who have already signaled support for Alcolumbre's re-election as head of the chamber.
“Those who have real resolve don't vote for Alcolumbre”
The message was blunt. In one post, Guimarães wrote: “There are two things I don't know in life: fear and indecision!” Replying to a follower, he went further: “Those who have real resolve don't vote for Alcolumbre!”
Guimarães was elected in October with 316,786 votes, but he only takes office in February 2027. Even so, he has already shaken up the race. He has not formally endorsed Rogério Marinho or any other candidate. For now, opposition to the current Senate president is his only explicit move.
Marinho, the PL and the largest caucus
The contest for control of the Senate pits Alcolumbre against Senator Rogério Marinho (PL-RN), of Rio Grande do Norte state. Marinho has the backing of the Liberal Party (PL), which will have the largest caucus in the Senate starting in 2027. That weight changes the arithmetic of the election.
Alcolumbre's support is eroding
On paper, Alcolumbre has public statements of support from the MDB, PSD, PT (the Workers' Party of President Lula), União Brasil and PP. In practice, he faces a steady stream of defections from senators in those same parties. The signal is clear: the vote is likely to be much tighter than expected.
The ballot is also secret. To win, a candidate needs at least 41 of the Senate's 81 votes. In a closed vote, party orientation does not always hold when senators actually cast their ballots, and public statements like Guimarães's show that loyalty to the Senate president has limits.
Why it matters
The Senate president runs the chamber of Brazil's Congress that votes on legislation and confirms key appointments, so the contest is closely watched in Brasília. The fact that the PL, the party of former president Jair Bolsonaro, will hold the largest caucus gives Marinho's candidacy added weight.
What comes next
The vote is months away, and the behind-the-scenes maneuvering is expected to heat up. It remains to be seen whether Guimarães will formally back Marinho and whether other senators-elect will follow the same path. Each new defection feeds the question hanging over Brasília: will the support declared for Alcolumbre hold up at the Senate's ballot box?
VDD Analysis
When a senator-elect publicly says he will not vote for the favorite and contradicts the leadership of his own party, the political message matters: the backing of large parties, including the PT, does not guarantee votes in a secret ballot. Rogério Marinho's candidacy, with the largest party in the Senate behind it, has reason to believe the election is wide open.
